AFLW Engine
Expected votes for every player in every game. Live leaderboard, player profiles, comparison tools and more.
LeaderJasmine Garner
Exp votes21.2
Clear by+1.1
AFLW Best and Fairest · Through Round 10
CHA CHING
Everything you need for an edge on AFLW Best and Fairest night.
Round 10 · Most Likely To Poll
1K. Bowers· FRE · 2.8
2A. Parker· GWS · 2.7
3L. Gardiner· SYD · 2.7
Round10
Current LeaderJasmine Garner
Exp votes0.0
Votes Clear+1.1
Open AFLW Leaderboard
Personalised Tracker
Your picks, your players, live on the night. Track head-to-heads and watch your watchlist settle as the votes are read.
Count NightNov 23
Countdown—
Brownlow · 2026 final count
Nick Daicos wins the 2026 Brownlow
The men's count is in. Every vote against the model, round by round, and the full board with actual votes beside every prediction.
MedallistNick Daicos
Votes47
Model had39.6
How it works
From raw stats to a defensible prediction
01
Aggregate
Pull player and match data from AFL Tables, Wheelo, ESPN, Betfair and AFL Predictor into one normalised dataset.
02
Model
An XGBoost model trained on 2007–2025 seasons scores every player, learning the patterns that historically win votes.
03
Compare
Blend our projection with market consensus to surface divergence — where the model sees an edge the crowd misses.
Transparency
Nothing hidden. Here's exactly how it works.
The Data
AFL Tables
Historical box scores & votes
Wheelo Ratings
Player impact ratings
ESPN
Match stats & injuries
Betfair
Live market odds
AFL Predictor
Community projections
The Method
XGBoost model
Gradient-boosted trees trained on 2007–2025 vote outcomes across every home-and-away round.
Consensus compound
Model output is blended with market and community sources into a single weighted probability.
Monte Carlo
Thousands of simulated seasons produce win probabilities, not just point estimates.
No paywall. No hidden picks.
Features
Everything you need to read the race
Leaderboard
Full ranked field with live probabilities, updated after every round.
Player Profiles
Per-player vote history, form curves and the stats driving each score.
Live Tracker
Round-by-round expected votes that shift as games are played.
Stat Filter
Slice the field by disposals, clearances, goals and more.
Model Comparison
See where our projection diverges from the market and rival models.
Personal Watchlist
Pin the players you are tracking and watch their odds move.